SEABL Women- Preliminary Finals preview

EAST CONFERENCE PRELIMINARY FINAL

Geelong Lady Supercats (13-9) v Nunawading Spectres (10-12), The Geelong Arena, 6.00pm Saturday, August 29

Form

Geelong has now lost three of their past six games after falling to Dandenong in the Semi-Final. They won both the second and fourth quarters but a 13-28 third term proved their downfall. Turnovers are their biggest concern, recording 18 while giving up eight steals against the Rangers.

A shot in the dying seconds from Nicole Romeo carried Nunawading to the victory over Brisbane last weekend, sending the defending Champions out of the playoffs. Their league-best defence held the Lady Spartans to 55 points but the other end of the floor remains a concern.

Key Stat

Double-overtime was required when these sides met in Round 16, less than a month ago. Nunawading led by a point at the main break before Geelong tied the game at three-quarter time with neither side able to break the deadlock in the final term. Six free throws helped keep the Spectres in the contest in the first extra period but a 9-4 run in the second overtime session finally saw the Lady Supercats break away for the win.

X-Factor

Geelong: Alex Duck has scored 18 or more points six times this season with two of those instances coming against Nunawading. Her highest total of the season was a 23-point effort in Round 6, averaging 20.5 points at 41% shooting with 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.5 steals.

Nunawading: Arriving as a replacement for Bec Cole, Carly Wilson brought with her over five years SEABL experience as well as a 300+ game career in the WNBL. She has had some lean matches recently but her experience in the finals is a valuable commodity for the Spectres as is her place in the front court against the likes of Sara Blicavs and Tayla Roberts.

Key Match ups

Courtney Williamson vs. Nicole Romeo

In arguably her best game of the year, Romeo recorded 29 points and ten rebounds in Round 16, hitting 5-8 from the three-point line. Williamson had 13, eight and three assists in that contest but will need to contain the Spectres point guard after her heroics in the Semi-Final. Defensively, Romeo’s main task will be restricting Williamson’s passing ability as she has averaged one more assist this season compared to her already impressive career average.

Previous Meetings This Year

Round 6:                                                                          Round 16:
Nunawading 58 def. by Geelong 72                          Geelong 84 def. Nunawading 79
@ Nunawading                                                              @ Geelong

Overall:

This must be another low-scoring affair for Nunawading to succeed as they average 65 points against and are 1-10 when oppositions surpass that total. Geelong have surpassed that mark in both previous meetings and should have the capability to slow down Romeo in Duck and Williamson while Roberts held her own against Dandenong’s front court last weekend and should prove too big and strong in the rebound battle.

Prediction: Geelong by 6.

SOUTH CONFERENCE PRELIMINARY FINAL

Kilsyth Lady Cobras (17-5) v Launceston Tornadoes (14-8), Kilsyth Sports Centre, 7.00pm Saturday, August 29

Form

Facing a talented Bendigo team and with Steph Cumming and Sarah Parsons battling sickness, Kilsyth were overrun in the Semi-Final after leading by two points at half-time. They shot 32% compared to the Lady Braves 49% but will be buoyed by their efforts on the glass as they recorded six more total boards and won the offensive rebound count 15-3.

Launceston won every quarter in a clinical performance on the road against Hobart last weekend, collecting nine more rebounds and 16 more free throw attempts while doubling the Lady Chargers in assists. They will also take confidence from their two regular season victories over Kilsyth.

Key Stat

The Lady Cobras have struggled to stay out of foul trouble against Launceston in 2015, giving up an average of 22 attempts per game while being out-scored by a total of ten from the charity stripe despite being the best free-throw shooting team in the league (81%).

X-Factor

Kilsyth: Against the talented front court of Launceston, Cassie Sant must be at her best on Saturday night. Her 18-point average on the season has dropped to 12.5 against Launceston but her point production is not as necessary as her defence on the likes of Mikaela Ruef and Emilee Harmon. Together, that trio has combined for an average of 34.5 points and 19 rebounds to control the tempo of both previous meetings.

Launceston: Recording a double-double in every game except the one in which she suffered an injury, Mikaela Ruef is averaging 16.4 points and a ridiculous 15 rebounds on the season which she has improved to 15.2 and 18.6 in her past five games. Kilsyth must do their best to keep her away from the offensive glass as her 5.6 offensive boards per game are a threat to the Lady Cobras’ average of nine as a team.

Key Match ups

Steph Cumming vs. Alex Wilson

With such a strong front court, Launceston’s forwards may have to swing between positions which should see Wilson defend the likes of Cumming and Chantella Perera. Both players have been scoring machines in their previous meetings, with Wilson averaging 23 points and 7.5 rebounds while Cumming has added 23.5 and five per game.

Previous Meetings This Year

Round 7:                                                                          Round 17:
Kilsyth 76 def. by Launceston 88                                Launceston 87 def. Kilsyth 80
@ Kilsyth                                                                         @ Launceston

Overall:

The Tornadoes certainly have the scoring capabilities to run Kilsyth into the ground with the field goal shooting of Harmon (50%), Wilson (44%), Ruef (42%) and Lauren Mansfield (41%). They will need to be diligent on the boards but even if they are, a healthy Cumming and Parsons will make a big difference for the home side and it seems unlikely that they will drop two straight games for the first time this season.

Prediction: Kilsyth by 2.